Covid 19 main page which is a 6 day average of death rate
Updated: May 31, 2020 1030 MDT
Daily US Death
Same day previous months death totals (JH)
Data from Arizona, Florida, Georgia can not be trusted due to
interference from politicians.
Important request. I have started to put little points in each
graphs on the date the state changes its lockdown or open policy.
Please email me if you want to help, find a mistake, or get new
information. I will update the graphs accordingly.
Also, please look at Colorado and note all
the places I pull data from. I think the most important data set
on there is the "date of death". If your state is doing
something similar and I can get to the data, please let me know.
I have for the US added the Johns
Hopkins databases. In most cases NYT aligns with JH, but not
always. See New York for example. I think
most news reports use the JH database so that is why I added it.
I believe this is the better graphing to tease out trends, however
the number of deaths has to be at least 100 before the graph has any
meaning. If the number is low, the cumulative
page is probably a better graph to look at.
Added more European Countries and more states
Herd Immunity with Sweden still continues to be a popular topic of
discussion on parts of the web. Take a jump to Sweden
vs Norway to show it is a dangerous concept, with Sweden 9x
the daily death rate of Norway (rolling average)
This page is inspired by Kevin Drum of motherjones.com
It shows a 6 day rolling average of the number of reported deaths.
It is per million inhabitants (per Google for population)
Data is now "Days since first death" unless otherwise noted. Data
will actually start on Day 6 because it is a six day average.
Methodology for those who are interested is on found here at method
New: US data transitioned from Johns Hopkins to New
Given the lunacy of voting in Wisconsin, I added in Wisconsin to
see if there will be a bump 14 to 21 days from April 7
Also in the lunacy department, on April 18, Florida allowed
beaches to reopen, although not all municipalities have followed
Jump to state/country:
States (other than NY)
New York (without US)
State Grid (trying this out rather than a long list of states. If
the state has an underline, it has a link, if no underline, I have
not yet added it).
US as a whole has started to trend down on the 6 day rolling
average. I removed NY so that the comparison to Italy for the US is
easier to see.
- I think the delta between the two databases is due to a change
in how New York is reported
For Dominique, Italy vs France
The chart is distorted if I use Day since 1st Death, as France had
its first death on "day 1" (obviously) but the next death was not
till day 12. Hence this chart will be offset by 12 days as I
think Day 12 should be considered France's start.
I put this in because some people think Sweden gets away without
As of April 9 data the per capita death rate in Sweden is 8.9 times
higher than Norway.
- April 20, day 38, Denmark starts to reopen
- April 20, day 43, Germany starts to reopen
shows graphics with "date of death" similar to Colorado, but I
can not find a csv file to download and automatically update.
- May 2: Loosening May 4 (day 46), May 8, order expires May 15
- May 2: (day 60) possibly moving to stage 2 reopen
- Does not reflect first death is now early February instead of
- Safer at home April 27 (day 47)
- The Colorado chart is really important from a data handling
point of view. If you look at the "methodology" page, I put in
data from JH, NYT and Colorado.gov. The trouble is each day
Colorado.gov does significant revisions from the previous day.
While this is most likely a good thing, when you use a national
database like JH or NYT, you can get a false sense of where we
- Note, on April 22, Colorado.gov added a new field, date of
death as opposed to date the death was reported. The plot now
shows report date and death date. The date of death does have
the peak shifted later by 8 to 10 days over the reported date. I
don't understand but will put both fields in. Also for April 22
data which is really almost the April 21 data, the cumulative
deaths are as follows:
- JH: 506
- Colorado reported date: 508
- Colorado date of death: 466
- Between the shifting of the peak (which I don't understand)
and the 40 or so fewer deaths (which probably means they are
still catching up on the death certificates and verifying the
fields, for right now Date of Death has to be taken with many
grains of salt.
- April 18, (day 44) Beaches and other outdoor places restored.
- May 4, (day 60) Safer at Home
- April 24, day 44 - First loosening of restrictions by Kemp.
- April 30 (50) - Shelter in place expired April 30
- April 15 some reopen, further reopen May 1 (day 37)
- April 18, day 24, non distance rally held.
- Safer at home May 1 (day 46)
- May 1 loosen more than a safer at home (day 39)
- May 3 - end stay at home (day 53)
- Loosening May 1 (day 49)
- Change in Johns Hopkins reporting starting at day 41
- Loosening April 24 (day 38)
- Loosening April 27 (day 38)
- Loosening April 27 (day 32) and further May 4 (day 39)
- Adjusted y scale so that Italy, not New York controls (May 27)
- Order expires May 15
- Change in how Johns Hopkins is reporting deaths starting at
- Loosening in stages May 1(43), May 4 (46), May 12(54)
- Loosening, April 24(37), May 1(44)
Oregon - added May 20 for my friend Vlad
- Never had any restrictions
- Loosening planned for May 5(67)
- April 7, 2020, day 33, This was primary day
- Loosening April 24, 2020 day 37
- May 13, 2020, day 56, Wisconsin Supreme Court ended lockdown
Cumulative Covid Page
Eagle County vs Summit County
This page maintained by Don Samuels