Covid 19 main page most of which is a 6 day average of death
Updated: July 15, 2020 1000 MDT
Daily US Death
Same day previous months death totals
Data from Arizona, Florida, Georgia can not be trusted due to
interference from politicians.
New, June 10, I have animated some of the Colorado data here.
I believe this is the better graphing to tease out trends, however
the number of deaths has to be at least 100 before the graph has any
meaning. If the number is low, the cumulative
page is probably a better graph to look at.
Added more European Countries and more states
Herd Immunity with Sweden still continues to be a popular topic of
discussion on parts of the web. Take a jump to Sweden
vs Norway to show it is a dangerous concept, with Sweden 9x
the daily death rate of Norway (rolling average)
This page is inspired by Kevin Drum of motherjones.com
It shows a 6 day rolling average of the number of reported deaths.
It is per million inhabitants (per Google for population)
Data is now "Days since first death" unless otherwise noted. Data
will actually start on Day 6 because it is a six day average.
Methodology for those who are interested is on found here at method
New: US data transitioned from Johns Hopkins to New
Given the lunacy of voting in Wisconsin, I added in Wisconsin to
see if there will be a bump 14 to 21 days from April 7
Also in the lunacy department, on April 18, Florida allowed
beaches to reopen, although not all municipalities have followed
Jump to state/country:
States (other than NY)
Colorado Case Data
New York (without US)
State Grid (trying this out rather than a long list of states. If
the state has an underline, it has a link, if no underline, I have
not yet added it).
US as a whole has started to trend down on the 6 day rolling
average. I removed NY so that the comparison to Italy for the US is
easier to see.
- I think the delta between the two databases is due to a change
in how New York is reported
For Dominique, Italy vs France
The chart is distorted if I use Day since 1st Death, as France had
its first death on "day 1" (obviously) but the next death was not
till day 12. Hence this chart will be offset by 12 days as I
think Day 12 should be considered France's start.
I put this in because some people think Sweden gets away without
As of April 9 data the per capita death rate in Sweden is 8.9 times
higher than Norway.
- April 20, day 38, Denmark starts to reopen
- April 20, day 43, Germany starts to reopen
shows graphics with "date of death" similar to Colorado, but I
can not find a csv file to download and automatically update.
- May 2: Loosening May 4 (day 46), May 8, order expires May 15
- May 2: (day 60) possibly moving to stage 2 reopen
- Does not reflect first death is now early February instead of
- Safer at home April 27 (day 47)
Here is an animated
version of the Colorado death:
- The Colorado chart is really important from a data handling
point of view. If you look at the "methodology" page, I put in
data from JH, NYT and Colorado.gov. The trouble is each day
Colorado.gov does significant revisions from the previous day.
While this is most likely a good thing, when you use a national
database like JH or NYT, you can get a false sense of where we
- I have automated generating an animated gif showing how the
Colorado data changes over time. I am not convinced anymore that
Colorado's date of death is useful. I also went for this chart
to a 7 day rolling average, something I will convert all of the
charts on this page to. The first chart in this animation
is the April 22 data which is when Colorado changed how they
report. I can't generate this chart any earlier than that.
Marina noticed on the Colorado.gov website that the shape of the
cumulative cases by date of onset did not change from one day to the
next, and thought this might mask the actual significance of the
ongoing change. Looking at the plot below, when a date stabilizes,
the slope seems to be constant. There is no actual leveling out.
- April 18, (day 44) Beaches and other outdoor places restored.
- May 4, (day 60) Safer at Home
- April 24, day 44 - First loosening of restrictions by Kemp.
- April 30 (50) - Shelter in place expired April 30
- April 15 some reopen, further reopen May 1 (day 37)
- April 18, day 24, non distance rally held.
- Safer at home May 1 (day 46)
- May 1 loosen more than a safer at home (day 39)
- May 3 - end stay at home (day 53)
- Loosening May 1 (day 49)
- Change in Johns Hopkins reporting starting at day 41
- Loosening April 24 (day 38)
- Loosening April 27 (day 38)
- Loosening April 27 (day 32) and further May 4 (day 39)
- Adjusted y scale so that Italy, not New York controls (May 27)
- Order expires May 15
- Change in how Johns Hopkins is reporting deaths starting at
- Loosening in stages May 1(43), May 4 (46), May 12(54)
- Loosening, April 24(37), May 1(44)
Oregon - added May 20 for my friend Vlad
- Never had any restrictions
- Loosening planned for May 5(67)
- April 7, 2020, day 33, This was primary day
- Loosening April 24, 2020 day 37
- May 13, 2020, day 56, Wisconsin Supreme Court ended lockdown
Cumulative Covid Page
Eagle County vs Summit County
This page maintained by Don Samuels